The Future of Work
What will the career landscape look like in 2027?
I attended SXSW six months ago ready to learn, to be inspired. The Sam Altman / Open AI drama that has unfolded before our eyes over the past couple of weeks has reminded me of the discussion on AI that happened in Austin this spring and the future of work for all of us.
Like many others in attendance at SXSW, I was excited to see what was trending. One session I attended stands out in my mind most. The session was put on by the Future Today Institute, a think tank based in New York City. Amy Webb, the CEO & Founder, highlighted the rapid evolution that is occurring today with ChatGPT and encouraged everyone to plan for both the best and worst case scenarios. (Amy discussed the Sam Altman drama recently on CNN.)
Both the discourse at SXSW and the OpenAI drama make me wonder…
How will the global jobs landscape change?
What do I need to do today to be ready?
What career adventures should I be pursuing?
Lucky for us, organizations like the World Economic Forum and Future Today Institute are evaluating this. They don’t have THE answers, per se. They have guidance and guesses. Regardless, it behooves us to do some minor “prepping” for our own career adventures.
I decided to read the World Economic Forum’s Future of Jobs Report 2023 for a little of my own doomsday job prepping. Take a look at the report, if you have time to read the entire thing. If you don’t have gobs of time, here’s a quick summary with some thoughts of my own at the end.
World Economic Forum Future of Jobs
Google, “Future of jobs.” One of the top results is from the World Economic Forum. There are others from Forbes, McKinsey, and more, but this one looked very promising because it was released in 2023 and surveyed 803 companies across 27 industries in 45 countries. Some of the takeaways were obvious, but it made me think nonetheless.
(R)Evolution is Already Here
The next industrial revolution is already here. ChatGPT reached 100 million downloads in 2 months, a record!. This is seven months faster than it took TikTok.
I like the Future of Jobs report because it looks five years into the future, through 2027. It’s easy to take the long view and think the future is far off, like the flying car. It’s not. Even over this time horizon the statistics are sobering.
Contraction!
The WEF projects the global labor market to contract by a net 14 million jobs! That’s approximately 2% of the global workforce. If you are worried that ChatGPT will take over and turn all of us into energy sources to power computers in the cloud like in The Matrix, don’t! There’s no need to panic. Nevertheless, they project a 26 million job decline of the following types of roles:
Record-Keeping and Administrative, including Cashiers / Ticket Clerks
Data Entry, Accounting, Bookkeeping and Payroll Clerks
Administrative and Executive Secretaries
Expansion!
“But, where will the jobs be?” you might ask. Most job growth will be driven by climate change adaption and technology advancement. Think ESG and Big Data, to overly simplify. Companies surveyed expect the top 10 places for job creation to be in the following categories. (See figure 2.5 on page 25 of the report):
Big-data analytics
Climate change mitigation technology
Environmental management technologies
Encryption and cybersecurity
Biotechnology
Agriculture technologies
Digital platforms and apps
Health and care technologies
Education and workforce development technologies
Augmented and virtual reality
What Types of Jobs?
That’s nice to know, but are there any specific jobs that are more likely to exist? Yes! AI and Machine Learning Specialists are projected to grow fastest. Sustainability Specialists are projected to grow second fastest. Check out figure 3.3 on page 30 for the full projection.
While AI / Machine Learning and Sustainability Specialists will grow fastest, the following jobs are forecasted to grow most: Ag Equipment Operators, Heavy Truck / Bus Drivers, Vocational Education Teachers, Mechanics, Biz Dev Professionals. See figure 3.4 on page 31 for the top growing jobs.
On the flip side, five job types are projected to lose a combined ~25 million jobs. The job types include Data Entry Clerks, Admin / Exec Secretaries, Accounting Clerks, Security Guards, and Building Caretakers. See figure 3.4 on page 31 for the top displaced jobs.
Skills Needed
With so much change afoot, “What skills and training might be needed?” you may ask. The report offers some thoughts.
First, two core skill types will be most critical: cognitive and self efficacy. Makes sense. The world needs persistent, disciplined thinkers. This includes things like analytics, creativity, resilience / agility, motivation, and curiosity. To me, analytics and creativity are invaluable and always will be. The ability to dissect problems and create solutions is what we humans excel at. Thus, tap into these! See figure 4.2 on page 38 for all of the “skills”
Second, the report suggests there is a huge skills gap in this space. Focus on analytical and creative thinking and AI / Big Data skills is highest. Yet, the supply of educational resources for these skills may be lacking. Look at Coursera, for example. Courses in programming, networks and cybersecurity, and resource management are in greatest supply. Yet, these skill sets will receive less focus in the future according to the companies surveyed. While these skills will likely still be needed, companies are signaling there is an educational resource gap to be filled in new spaces. See figure B4.1 on page 44 for the full analysis.
Workforce Strategies
Large scale workforce strategies are required to prepare everyone for the future. I worked on a real estate development startup in b-school, where we did this exact thing. One of the key pieces of work I completed was an economic impact study for the development. It was beloved because we outlined not only the number of jobs we planned to create but also the “exact” types of jobs down to the title. This helped the local economic development and community development organizations plan for a new world post real estate development. Connecting that experience back to the Future of Jobs Report, there are a few notable areas of discussion pertaining to barriers to transformation, talent availability, and talent development.
First, companies note a number of barriers to transformation. The top two are skills gaps in the local labor market and inability to attract talent. Notably, skills gap among the organizations leadership was also highlighted as a top five barrier. Thus, skills gap is a top to bottom organizational problem, one that CEOs and interns should all be thinking about. Companies say they will invest in training and invest in process automation nearly equally. Thus, up-skilling and re-skilling is something everyone of us should do. See figures 5.1 and 5.2 on pages 49 and 50, respectively, for the full profile.
Second, companies worry about availability of talent. Their top strategies to address this include improving promotion / progression, pay, re-skilling, the articulation of business purpose, and remote / hybrid work opportunities. In evaluating talent, companies will still use work experience as the top assessment priority. Companies recognize focus on DEI and public policy are critical to addressing talent availability. Most organizations will continue to train managers and staff with DEI. Companies are asking for more public funding to address skills gaps. Check out pages 53 - 56 for an in-depth profile.
Last, talent development will be key. 87% of companies say their organization will pay for training. Only 28% of companies say they will use free of cost training! (More on this opportunity in My Take.) The top ways companies will train their employees are via on-the-job training, internal training departments, and employer sponsored apprenticeships. Most companies expect training efforts to take at least 6 months.
My Take
Wow….that was a lot to take in over a morning coffee. To summarize, change is here. Jobs are disappearing and being created, but not equally. We live in a AI, ESG, Big/Data future. Companies want pioneers embracing new skill sets and not just settling for the status quo. Here are a few additional thoughts.
Get to know AI - You may be wary of ChatGPT, but it’s already here. Sign up for an AI tool immediately and tinker. Learn how to write strong AI prompts. This will be a critical skill, especially in the white collar job sector. I routinely used ChatGPT to help identify consumer insights, ideate on potential product names, and improve new product concepts in my last role as Global Brand Strategy & Innovation Leader for a skincare company. It saved me time. Hell, it gave me better product names more quickly than if I spent an entire day doing it myself. Amy Webb suggested that white collar jobs will be impacted significantly in this new revolution during her SXSW session. People must adapt!
Career Skills Inventory - Do a career skills inventory. Use this report or another as your guide. Note skills you are interested in learning more about. I’ve done this multiple times in my career. I took over SEO and digital marketing responsibilities nearly a decade ago as a brand leader because I knew this was important. An easy first step is to incorporate new ways of working into your current gig. Then, do the classic informational interview to learn more about jobs or career paths you are interested in exploring. The key: setting up the time and the discipline to do it.
Find Free Training - There is so much highly valuable, free training in the world now. Both employees and companies should explore the free available options before spending a dime. I am currently completing Hubspot’s free content marketing certification. When I was Director of Innovation at an incubator, we’d routinely make companies aware of no cost tools and services offered by the government to up skill employees. All it takes is time and discipline. Get after it!
MOST IMPORTANT - Do what you love, within reason*! - If you love being an accountant, do it! Who cares if the job market is expected to see a decline in accountants and book keepers. There will always be a place for PEOPLE who have passion for what they do. Even in a big data, automated world, people want to work with people. Whether the job market is growing or contracting for your focus job, explore, map out a unique path, and do what makes you tick. The world needs passionate humans more than automated bots. (*Special Caveat - Don’t try to become an NFL quarterback because you love throwing a football if you are 5’9” and over 40. That “love” has passed you buy my friend. Find another love.)
As always, thanks for reading! The future is bright for career adventurers, like you. A leader I once worked for said, “Our job is to recognize facts and work to improve.” The same applies to our work lives. Recognize where the world is going, know what interests us, and make it joyful.
Sources -
World Economic Forum, Future of Jobs Report 2023, Insight Report May 2023
A quick note on the podcast…
I’ve conducted my first interview with a doctor who started to incorporate harp therapy into her patient treatments. Now she is a retired master gardener and apiary. This post is coming soon.
Also, I’m interviewing an entrepreneurial Ph. D and a fractional futurist. So, tune in for these stories coming in the next few weeks.
This is timely and very interesting. Thanks